Malmo FF 5–0 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

AIK Stockholm

4/28/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 6Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Malmo FF52%

×Draw25%

AIK Stockholm23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.97

Malmo FF

1.60

AIK Stockholm

0.97

Malmo FF creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

2.13

creates per match

0.97

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Malmo FF

2.13

AIK Stockholm

0.97

allows per match

Malmo FF

0.97

AIK Stockholm

1.07

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Malmo FF+0.14scores more

AIK Stockholm+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

77%

Malmo FF or AIK Stockholm

75%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

48%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

27%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

80%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

47%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

22%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

62%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

25%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

69%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.97 · 11 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.13 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

AIK Stockholm attack 0.97 + Malmo FF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Malmo FF scores more

52%

level

25%

AIK Stockholm scores more

23%

Malmo FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff