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Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm — Svenska Cupen 2019

Malmo FF
Malmo FFadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
6/25/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Quarter-finalsEleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Malmo FF45%
×Draw21%
AIK Stockholm35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
2.15
AIK Stockholm
1.88

Malmo FF creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
3.24
AIK Stockholm
3.11

allows per match

Malmo FF
0.65
AIK Stockholm
1.05

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
65%
Malmo FF or AIK Stockholm
79%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
55%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
26%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
88%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
63%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
36%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
85%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
56%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
56%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 3.24 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 2.15

AIK Stockholm attack 3.11 + Malmo FF defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Malmo FF scores more
45%
level
21%
AIK Stockholm scores more
35%

Malmo FF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Malmo FF 4–1 AIK Stockholm

Malmo FF beat AIK Stockholm 4-1 in Svenska Cupen on June 25, 2020.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.