Mallorca 2–1 Zaragoza: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zaragoza

L. Junior 89'

D. Rodriguez 68'

L. Zanimacchia 23' (pen)

5/23/2021

Segunda División · Round 41Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca51%

×Draw27%

Zaragoza22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchZaragoza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.83

Mallorca

1.43

Zaragoza

0.83

Mallorca creates 72% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 172 away

1.57

creates per match

1.01

0.65

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Mallorca

1.57

Zaragoza

1.01

allows per match

Mallorca

0.65

Zaragoza

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Zaragoza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

78%

Mallorca or Zaragoza

73%

Draw or Zaragoza

49%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

25%

Zaragoza wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

76%

Mallorca 2+ goals

42%

Mallorca 3+ goals

17%

Zaragoza 1+ goals

56%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

20%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

70%

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.29 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Zaragoza defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mallorca scores more

51%

level

27%

Zaragoza scores more

22%

Mallorca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Lago Júnior

Mallorca · F

7.7

Match Events

22'

D. Rodriguez

23'

L. ZanimacchiaPenalty

32'

J. M. Sanabria

34'

F. Serrano

58'

S. Sevilla

61'

I. Baba← R. Inigo

62'

J. Sastre← F. Gamez

62'

A. Sanchez← L. Junior

68'

D. Rodriguez

69'

S. Sevilla← A. Febas

72'

C. Nieto← J. Narvaez

73'

G. Fernandez← I. Azon

73'

F. Serrano← Sergio

75'

B. Olivan← M. Cardona

81'

L. Zanimacchia← G. Larrazabal

83'

A. Frances← J. Tarroc

89'

L. Junior↳ D. Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaZaragoza

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots8

2Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target3

6Off Target2

3Blocked3

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

488Total Passes346

415Accurate Passes269

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0