Mallorca 2–2 Osasuna: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Osasuna

Salva Sevilla 75' (pen)

J. Lago 21' (pen)

Rubén García 77'

Cardona 69'

10/31/2019

La Liga · Round 11Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Mallorca46%

×Draw27%

Osasuna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchOsasuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.02

Mallorca

1.41

Osasuna

1.02

Mallorca creates 38% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 33 away

1.24

creates per match

0.83

1.21

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Mallorca

1.24

Osasuna

0.83

allows per match

Mallorca

1.21

Osasuna

1.58

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.21scores more

Osasuna-0.07on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Osasuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

73%

Mallorca or Osasuna

73%

Draw or Osasuna

54%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

22%

Osasuna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

76%

Mallorca 2+ goals

41%

Mallorca 3+ goals

17%

Osasuna 1+ goals

64%

Osasuna 2+ goals

27%

Osasuna 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

63%

Osasuna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 44 matches

Osasuna away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.24 + Osasuna defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Osasuna attack 0.83 + Mallorca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mallorca scores more

46%

level

27%

Osasuna scores more

27%

Mallorca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Marc Cardona

Osasuna · F

7.7

Match Events

15'

Brandon

21'

J. LagoPenalty

34'

Pervis Estupinan

53'

David García

55'

Iddrisu Baba

62'

Fran Mérida← Roberto Torres

63'

64'

69'

75'

75'

Salva SevillaPenalty

76'

A. Trajkovski← Febas

77'

Rubén García↳ P. Estupiñán

78'

Luis Perea← Brandon

81'

Abdón Prats← Dani Rodríguez

89'

E. Ávila← Cardona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaOsasuna

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots12

5Corners3

9Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots12

3On Target4

7Off Target6

1Blocked2

9Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

348Total Passes414

245Accurate Passes313

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards5

0Offsides1