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Mallorca vs Las Palmas — Segunda División 2018

Mallorca
Mallorca
Preview
15:00
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
10/11/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Big match
51%
Mallorca
model favours
51%27%21%

Las Palmas score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca51%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca
1.40
Las Palmas
0.79

Mallorca creates 77% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 127 away

creates per match

Mallorca
1.57
Las Palmas
0.94

allows per match

Mallorca
0.65
Las Palmas
1.23

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par
Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Las Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw
79%
Mallorca or Las Palmas
73%
Draw or Las Palmas
49%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+
25%
Las Palmas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals
75%
Mallorca 2+ goals
41%
Mallorca 3+ goals
17%
Las Palmas 1+ goals
55%
Las Palmas 2+ goals
19%
Las Palmas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)
71%
Las Palmas (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Las Palmas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mallorca scores more
51%
level
27%
Las Palmas scores more
21%

Mallorca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Las Palmas’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Mallorca
WLLDW
Palmas
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mallorca vs Las Palmas — Match Preview

Mallorca face Las Palmas on October 11, 2026 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mallorca host Las Palmas at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.