Las Palmas 1–1 Mallorca: Result & Stats

Las Palmas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mallorca

S. Araújo 47'

A. Ndiaye 14'

4/4/2021

Segunda División · Round 33Estadio de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Las Palmas42%

×Draw30%

Mallorca28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las PalmasExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.91

Las Palmas

1.19

Mallorca

0.91

Las Palmas creates 31% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 45 away

1.47

creates per match

0.93

0.89

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Las Palmas

1.47

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Las Palmas

0.89

Mallorca

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw

72%

Las Palmas or Mallorca

70%

Draw or Mallorca

58%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+

18%

Mallorca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals

70%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

33%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

12%

Mallorca 1+ goals

60%

Mallorca 2+ goals

23%

Mallorca 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

60%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Las Palmas scores more

42%

level

30%

Mallorca scores more

28%

Las Palmas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Dani Rodríguez

Mallorca · M

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Murilo

14'

A. Ndiaye↳ Dani Rodríguez

45'

Aleksandar Sedlar

47'

S. Araújo↳ Jesé

63'

Pejiño← Óscar Clemente

71'

I. Mohammed← A. Sedlar

76'

Brian Cufre

78'

Kirian Rodríguez← Roberto González

78'

Joan Sastre← B. Cufré

78'

A. Trajkovski← Álvaro Giménez

90+1'

Abdón Prats← A. Ndiaye

90+1'

Jordi Mboula← Antonio Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LasMallorca

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots11

5Corners6

14Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots11

2On Target3

7Off Target6

6Blocked2

8Inside Box9

7Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

478Total Passes334

390Accurate Passes236

82%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4