Mallorca 2–2 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Las Palmas

Stoichkov 45'

J. Lago 42'

Rubén Castro 14'

Rafa Mir 7'

10/27/2018

Segunda División · Round 11Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca51%

×Draw27%

Las Palmas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.79

Mallorca

1.40

Las Palmas

0.79

Mallorca creates 77% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 127 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

0.65

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Mallorca

1.57

Las Palmas

0.94

allows per match

Mallorca

0.65

Las Palmas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

79%

Mallorca or Las Palmas

73%

Draw or Las Palmas

49%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

25%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

75%

Mallorca 2+ goals

41%

Mallorca 3+ goals

17%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

55%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

19%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

71%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Las Palmas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mallorca scores more

51%

level

27%

Las Palmas scores more

21%

Mallorca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Araújo

Las Palmas · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

Rafa Mir↳ Rubén Castro

14'

Rubén Castro↳ S. Araújo

42'

J. Lago

45'

Stoichkov↳ Salva Sevilla

52'

Francisco Javier Campos

57'

Deivid← David García

59'

Álvaro Lemos

62'

Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta

64'

Tana← Rafa Mir

70'

Pablo Valcarce← Ariday Cabrera

74'

Javi Castellano

76'

P. Estupiñán← Salva Ruiz

78'

H. Sacko← Ruiz de Galarreta

79'

Sergio Araujo

83'

Hadi Sacko

87'

F. Russo← P. Estupiñán

90'

Pedraza

90'

Raillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaLas

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots13

6Corners3

9Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots13

4On Target7

5Off Target3

3Blocked3

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

423Total Passes372

336Accurate Passes273

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2