Mallorca 2–6 Granada CF: Result & Stats | La Liga

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.14

Mallorca

1.56

Granada CF

1.14

Mallorca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 58 away

1.26

creates per match

1.21

1.07

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Mallorca

1.26

Granada CF

1.21

allows per match

Mallorca

1.07

Granada CF

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

72%

Mallorca or Granada CF

75%

Draw or Granada CF

53%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

24%

Granada CF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

79%

Mallorca 2+ goals

46%

Mallorca 3+ goals

21%

Granada CF 1+ goals

68%

Granada CF 2+ goals

32%

Granada CF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

63%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 95 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.26 + Granada CF defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Granada CF attack 1.21 + Mallorca defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mallorca scores more

47%

level

25%

Granada CF scores more

28%

Mallorca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Jorge Molina

Granada CF · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

L. Suárez

28'

Salva Sevilla↳ V. Muriqi

45+4'

Pablo Maffeo

45+1'

Antonio Raíllo

46'

Escudero

52'

Jorge Molina← L. Suárez

53'

Lee Kang-In← Abdón Prats

55'

Antonio Puertas↳ Jorge Molina

58'

Raíllo↳ Pablo Maffeo

60'

Domingos Duarte

62'

M. Uzuni← D. Machís

62'

M. Gonalons← Álex Collado

67'

Martin Valjent

68'

Ángel← Salva Sevilla

68'

Antonio Sánchez← Dani Rodríguez

69'

Jorge Molina↳ M. Gonalons

76'

Germán Sánchez← Antonio Puertas

77'

S. Arias← Escudero

78'

M. Uzuni

83'

Njegoš Petrović

84'

Brian Oliván← Jaume Costa

85'

Javier Llabrés← T. Kubo

90'

Jorge Molina↳ Quini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaGranada

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots14

5Corners5

11Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots14

8On Target7

6Off Target3

4Blocked4

14Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

403Total Passes289

298Accurate Passes179

74%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2