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Mallorca vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Mallorca
Mallorca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
10/21/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Mallorca52%
×Draw27%
Extremadura21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca
1.47
Extremadura
0.82

Mallorca creates 79% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mallorca
1.63
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Mallorca
0.56
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw
79%
Mallorca or Extremadura
73%
Draw or Extremadura
48%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+
27%
Extremadura wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals
77%
Mallorca 2+ goals
43%
Mallorca 3+ goals
18%
Extremadura 1+ goals
56%
Extremadura 2+ goals
20%
Extremadura 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)
71%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.56 · 43 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.63 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Mallorca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mallorca scores more
52%
level
27%
Extremadura scores more
21%

Mallorca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mallorca vs Extremadura

Mallorca and Extremadura drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Iberostar Estadi in Palma.