Mallorca 0–1 Atletico Madrid: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Madrid

Rodrigo Riquelme 5'

5/4/2024

La Liga · Round 34Estadi Mallorca Son Moix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Mallorca40%

×Draw27%

Atletico Madrid34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.21

Mallorca

1.34

Atletico Madrid

1.21

Mallorca creates 11% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 37 away

1.28

creates per match

1.17

1.25

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Mallorca

1.28

Atletico Madrid

1.17

allows per match

Mallorca

1.25

Atletico Madrid

1.41

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.18scores more

Atletico Madrid+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Atletico Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

66%

Mallorca or Atletico Madrid

73%

Draw or Atletico Madrid

60%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

18%

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

74%

Mallorca 2+ goals

39%

Mallorca 3+ goals

15%

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

34%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

54%

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.25 · 39 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.28 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atletico Madrid attack 1.17 + Mallorca defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mallorca scores more

40%

level

27%

Atletico Madrid scores more

34%

Mallorca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Jan Oblak

Atletico Madrid · G

7.6

Match Events

5'

Rodrigo Riquelme

46'

Nahuel Molina← Mario Hermoso

62'

Cyle Larin← Abdón Prats

62'

Manu Morlanes← Pablo Maffeo

71'

Antonio Raíllo

75'

Vedat Muriqi

76'

Nemanja Radonjić← Martin Valjent

76'

Giovanni González← Dani Rodríguez

80'

Rodrigo de Paul← Ángel Correa

83'

Álvaro Morata← Samuel Lino

86'

Javi Llabrés← Omar Mascarell

90'

Reinildo Mandava← César Azpilicueta

90'

Stefan Savić← Nahuel Molina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaAtletico

Overview

59%Possession41%

7Total Shots9

0.24Expected Goals (xG)0.72

6Corners2

12Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots9

4On Target4

3Off Target4

0Blocked1

4Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

528Total Passes375

451Accurate Passes289

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0