Mallorca 0–2 Atletico Madrid: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Madrid

João Félix 64'

Diego Costa 26'

9/25/2019

La Liga · Round 6Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Mallorca39%

×Draw27%

Atletico Madrid34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.19

Mallorca

1.31

Atletico Madrid

1.19

Mallorca creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

1.24

creates per match

1.16

1.21

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Mallorca

1.24

Atletico Madrid

1.16

allows per match

Mallorca

1.21

Atletico Madrid

1.39

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.21scores more

Atletico Madrid+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Atletico Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

66%

Mallorca or Atletico Madrid

73%

Draw or Atletico Madrid

61%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

18%

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

73%

Mallorca 2+ goals

38%

Mallorca 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

54%

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 44 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.24 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atletico Madrid attack 1.16 + Mallorca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mallorca scores more

39%

level

27%

Atletico Madrid scores more

34%

Mallorca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Koke

Atletico Madrid · M

7.6

Match Events

5'

Iddrisu Baba

7'

Ante Budimir

13'

Stefan Savić

26'

Diego Costa↳ Koke

55'

Felipe

57'

Á. Correa← Vitolo

62'

A. Trajkovski← J. Lago

64'

João Félix

67'

Abdón Prats← I. Mohammed

67'

Álex Alegría← A. Budimir

69'

Morata← Diego Costa

77'

Francisco Javier Campos

77'

77'

77'

83'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaAtletico

Overview

48%Possession52%

9Total Shots13

8Corners5

8Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target3

3Off Target7

3Blocked3

5Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

447Total Passes490

361Accurate Passes413

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1