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Mallorca II vs San Rafael — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mallorca II
Mallorca II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Rafael
San Rafael
11/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 12Estadi Son Bibiloni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Mallorca II71%
×Draw18%
San Rafael11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca II
2.22
San Rafael
0.73

Mallorca II creates 204% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mallorca II
2.91
San Rafael
0.94

allows per match

Mallorca II
0.53
San Rafael
1.53

finishing

Mallorca II+0.00on par
San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca II ↓

San Rafael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mallorca II or draw
89%
Mallorca II or San Rafael
82%
Draw or San Rafael
29%

Winning margin

Mallorca II wins by 2+
47%
San Rafael wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals
89%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
65%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
38%
San Rafael 1+ goals
52%
San Rafael 2+ goals
17%
San Rafael 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mallorca II (draw refunded)
87%
San Rafael (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca II at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.53 · 81 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca II attack 2.91 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.22

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Mallorca II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Mallorca II scores more
71%
level
18%
San Rafael scores more
11%

Mallorca II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Mallorca II 4–0 San Rafael

Mallorca II beat San Rafael 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi Son Bibiloni in Palma de Mallorca.