Mallorca II 1–1 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Mallorca II

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Dani Ribelles 63'

Pau Pomar 4'

12/21/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Estadi Son Bibiloni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Mallorca II49%

×Draw24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mallorca IIExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.27

Mallorca II

1.75

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.27

Mallorca II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 44 away

2.91

creates per match

2.00

0.53

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Mallorca II

2.91

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Mallorca II

0.53

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca II ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mallorca II or draw

72%

Mallorca II or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

76%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

51%

Winning margin

Mallorca II wins by 2+

26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

83%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

52%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

72%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

36%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

64%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mallorca II at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.53 · 81 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca II attack 2.91 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Mallorca II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mallorca II scores more

49%

level

24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

28%

Mallorca II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Pau Pomar

36'

Dani Ribelles← Adri Montalban

54'

Sergi Piña← José Arias

58'

Enric Martínez← Jaime

63'

Dani Ribelles

64'

Melo← Colau

74'

Kike Fajarnes← Gorka Ramón

81'

Andreu Arasa← Dani Ribelles

Mallorca

Ibiza

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Julián Robles

36'▲Dani Ribelles←▼Adri Montalban

58'▲Enric Martínez←▼Jaime

81'▲Andreu Arasa←▼Dani Ribelles

Mallorca II substitutes

RibellesMartínezArasa

Manager: José Pérez

54'▲Sergi Piña←▼José Arias

64'▲Melo←▼Colau

74'▲Kike Fajarnes←▼Gorka Ramón

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

PiñaMeloFajarnes