Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–1 Mallorca II

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mallorca II

Felipao 90+3', 84'

Marquitos 51'

Adrian Barquero 22'

4/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 31Estadi Municipal Can Misses III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas42%

×Draw26%

Mallorca II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchMallorca II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.20

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.43

Mallorca II

1.20

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 80 away

2.14

creates per match

1.96

0.44

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Mallorca II

1.96

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Mallorca II

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Mallorca II →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

68%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Mallorca II

74%

Draw or Mallorca II

58%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

20%

Mallorca II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

76%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

42%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

17%

Mallorca II 1+ goals

70%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

34%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

57%

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.43

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

42%

level

26%

Mallorca II scores more

32%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Adrian Barquero

46'

Yuzún Ley← Carlos Sogorb

51'

Marquitos

53'

Iván López← Pau Mascaró

63'

E. Barrois← Marcos Fernández

70'

Dani Sales← Xesc Navalón

70'

Juanca Alarcón← Airam López

79'

Felipao← Álex Sánchez

81'

Luis Montiel← Rubén Quintanilla

81'

Martí Payeras← Adrian Barquero

84'

Felipao

90+3'

Felipao

Ibiza

Mallorca

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl Casañ

70'▲Dani Sales←▼Xesc Navalón

70'▲Juanca Alarcón←▼Airam López

79'▲Felipao←▼Álex Sánchez

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

SalesAlarcónFelipao

Manager: G. Siviero

46'▲Yuzún Ley←▼Carlos Sogorb

53'▲Iván López←▼Pau Mascaró

63'▲E. Barrois←▼Marcos Fernández

81'▲Luis Montiel←▼Rubén Quintanilla

81'▲Martí Payeras←▼Adrian Barquero

Mallorca II substitutes

LeyLópezBarroisMontielPayeras

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–1 Mallorca II

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Mallorca II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 28, 2024.

Goals: Adrian Barquero (22'), Marquitos (51'), Felipao (84', 90+3').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Can Misses III in Eivissa.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Mallorca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–1 Mallorca II