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Mallorca II vs Esporles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mallorca II
Mallorca II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Esporles
Esporles
10/19/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Estadi Son Bibiloni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mallorca II80%
×Draw14%
Esporles6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca II
2.54
Esporles
0.55

Mallorca II creates 362% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mallorca II
2.91
Esporles
0.57

allows per match

Mallorca II
0.53
Esporles
2.18

finishing

Mallorca II+0.00on par
Esporles+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca II ↓

Esporles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mallorca II or draw
94%
Mallorca II or Esporles
86%
Draw or Esporles
20%

Winning margin

Mallorca II wins by 2+
58%
Esporles wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals
92%
Mallorca II 2+ goals
72%
Mallorca II 3+ goals
46%
Esporles 1+ goals
42%
Esporles 2+ goals
11%
Esporles 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mallorca II (draw refunded)
93%
Esporles (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca II at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.53 · 81 matches

Esporles away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca II attack 2.91 + Esporles defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.54

Esporles attack 0.57 + Mallorca II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Mallorca II scores more
80%
level
14%
Esporles scores more
6%

Mallorca II at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mallorca II vs Esporles

Mallorca II and Esporles drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadi Son Bibiloni in Palma de Mallorca.