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Malkiya vs Busaiteen — Premier League 2019

Malkiya
Malkiya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Busaiteen
Busaiteen
3/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Malkiya43%
×Draw31%
Busaiteen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malkiya
1.14
Busaiteen
0.81

Malkiya creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

creates per match

Malkiya
0.88
Busaiteen
0.74

allows per match

Malkiya
0.88
Busaiteen
1.39

finishing

Malkiya+0.00on par
Busaiteen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malkiya ↓

Busaiteen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malkiya or draw
74%
Malkiya or Busaiteen
69%
Draw or Busaiteen
57%

Winning margin

Malkiya wins by 2+
18%
Busaiteen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Malkiya 1+ goals
68%
Malkiya 2+ goals
32%
Malkiya 3+ goals
11%
Busaiteen 1+ goals
56%
Busaiteen 2+ goals
19%
Busaiteen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malkiya (draw refunded)
63%
Busaiteen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malkiya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Busaiteen away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malkiya attack 0.88 + Busaiteen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Busaiteen attack 0.74 + Malkiya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malkiya scores more
43%
level
31%
Busaiteen scores more
26%

Malkiya at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Malkiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malkiya vs Busaiteen

Malkiya and Busaiteen drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.