Malkiya 1–1 Al Ahli: Result & Stats

Malkiya

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Ahli

K. Tamrani 62'

J. Villa 41'

2/14/2025

Premier League · Round 11Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Malkiya40%

×Draw29%

Al Ahli32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalkiyaExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.03

Malkiya

1.19

Al Ahli

1.03

Malkiya creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

0.88

creates per match

1.18

0.88

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Malkiya

0.88

Al Ahli

1.18

allows per match

Malkiya

0.88

Al Ahli

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malkiya+0.00on par

Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malkiya ↓

Al Ahli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Malkiya or draw

68%

Malkiya or Al Ahli

71%

Draw or Al Ahli

60%

Winning margin

Malkiya wins by 2+

17%

Al Ahli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Malkiya 1+ goals

70%

Malkiya 2+ goals

33%

Malkiya 3+ goals

12%

Al Ahli 1+ goals

64%

Al Ahli 2+ goals

28%

Al Ahli 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Malkiya (draw refunded)

56%

Al Ahli (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malkiya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Al Ahli away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malkiya attack 0.88 + Al Ahli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Ahli attack 1.18 + Malkiya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Malkiya scores more

40%

level

29%

Al Ahli scores more

32%

Malkiya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Malkiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

J. Villa

62'

K. Tamrani

Malkiya

Al

Manager: Ahmed Al Dakheel

Manager: Ángel López