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Malisheva vs Buducnost Podgorica — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Malisheva
Malisheva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
7/11/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundStadiumi Zahir Pajaziti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Malisheva75%
×Draw19%
Buducnost Podgorica6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malisheva
1.93
Buducnost Podgorica
0.38

Malisheva creates 408% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Malisheva
2.00
Buducnost Podgorica
0.43

allows per match

Malisheva
0.33
Buducnost Podgorica
1.86

finishing

Malisheva+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malisheva ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malisheva or draw
94%
Malisheva or Buducnost Podgorica
81%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
25%

Winning margin

Malisheva wins by 2+
48%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Malisheva 1+ goals
85%
Malisheva 2+ goals
57%
Malisheva 3+ goals
30%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
32%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
6%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Malisheva (draw refunded)
92%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malisheva at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malisheva attack 2.00 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Buducnost Podgorica attack 0.43 + Malisheva defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Malisheva scores more
75%
level
19%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
6%

Malisheva at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Malisheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Malisheva 1–0 Buducnost Podgorica

Malisheva beat Buducnost Podgorica 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Zahir Pajaziti in Besiana, Podujevo.