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Maliqi vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Maliqi
Maliqi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
12/4/20211st Division1st Division · Round 12Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maliqi48%
×Draw24%
Turbina Cërrik28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maliqi
1.69
Turbina Cërrik
1.25

Maliqi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

creates per match

Maliqi
1.47
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Maliqi
1.67
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Maliqi+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maliqi ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Maliqi or draw
72%
Maliqi or Turbina Cërrik
76%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
52%

Winning margin

Maliqi wins by 2+
25%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maliqi 1+ goals
82%
Maliqi 2+ goals
50%
Maliqi 3+ goals
24%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
71%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
36%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Maliqi (draw refunded)
63%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maliqi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maliqi attack 1.47 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Maliqi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maliqi scores more
48%
level
24%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
28%

Maliqi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maliqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maliqi vs Turbina Cërrik

Maliqi and Turbina Cërrik drew 1-1 in 1st Division on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Bilisht in Bilisht.