Maliqi 0–4 Erzeni Shijak: Result & Stats

Maliqi

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Erzeni Shijak

10/17/2021

1st Division · Round 5Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maliqi37%

×Draw25%

Erzeni Shijak38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaliqiExpected goals in this matchErzeni Shijak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.41

Maliqi

1.38

Erzeni Shijak

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 55 away

1.47

creates per match

1.15

1.67

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Maliqi

1.47

Erzeni Shijak

1.15

allows per match

Maliqi

1.67

Erzeni Shijak

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maliqi+0.00on par

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maliqi ↓

Erzeni Shijak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Maliqi or draw

62%

Maliqi or Erzeni Shijak

75%

Draw or Erzeni Shijak

63%

Winning margin

Maliqi wins by 2+

17%

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Maliqi 1+ goals

75%

Maliqi 2+ goals

40%

Maliqi 3+ goals

16%

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

76%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

41%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Maliqi (draw refunded)

49%

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maliqi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maliqi attack 1.47 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Maliqi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maliqi scores more

37%

level

25%

Erzeni Shijak scores more

38%

Erzeni Shijak at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff