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Maliqi vs Butrinti Sarandë — 1st Division 2019

Maliqi
Maliqi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Butrinti Sarandë
Butrinti Sarandë
11/6/20211st Division1st Division · Round 8Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maliqi45%
×Draw26%
Butrinti Sarandë29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maliqi
1.50
Butrinti Sarandë
1.16

Maliqi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Maliqi
1.47
Butrinti Sarandë
0.65

allows per match

Maliqi
1.67
Butrinti Sarandë
1.53

finishing

Maliqi+0.00on par
Butrinti Sarandë+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maliqi ↓

Butrinti Sarandë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maliqi or draw
71%
Maliqi or Butrinti Sarandë
74%
Draw or Butrinti Sarandë
55%

Winning margin

Maliqi wins by 2+
22%
Butrinti Sarandë wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maliqi 1+ goals
78%
Maliqi 2+ goals
44%
Maliqi 3+ goals
19%
Butrinti Sarandë 1+ goals
69%
Butrinti Sarandë 2+ goals
32%
Butrinti Sarandë 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maliqi (draw refunded)
61%
Butrinti Sarandë (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maliqi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Butrinti Sarandë away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maliqi attack 1.47 + Butrinti Sarandë defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Butrinti Sarandë attack 0.65 + Maliqi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Maliqi scores more
45%
level
26%
Butrinti Sarandë scores more
29%

Maliqi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maliqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Maliqi 1–1 Butrinti Sarandë

Maliqi and Butrinti Sarandë drew 1-1 in 1st Division on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Bilisht in Bilisht.