Maliqi 2–3 Besëlidhja Lezhë: Result & Stats

Maliqi

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Besëlidhja Lezhë

11/24/2021

1st Division · Round 10Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maliqi42%

×Draw26%

Besëlidhja Lezhë32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaliqiExpected goals in this matchBesëlidhja Lezhë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.26

Maliqi

1.47

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.26

Maliqi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

1.47

creates per match

0.86

1.67

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Maliqi

1.47

Besëlidhja Lezhë

0.86

allows per match

Maliqi

1.67

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maliqi+0.00on par

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maliqi ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Maliqi or draw

68%

Maliqi or Besëlidhja Lezhë

74%

Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë

58%

Winning margin

Maliqi wins by 2+

20%

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Maliqi 1+ goals

77%

Maliqi 2+ goals

43%

Maliqi 3+ goals

18%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals

72%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals

36%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Maliqi (draw refunded)

56%

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maliqi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maliqi attack 1.47 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Maliqi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maliqi scores more

42%

level

26%

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more

32%

Maliqi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maliqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff