Maliqi 1–1 Apolonia Fier: Result & Stats

Maliqi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Apolonia Fier

S. Repaj 38' (OG)

S. Repaj 90+2'

9/25/2021

1st Division · Round 3Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maliqi36%

×Draw26%

Apolonia Fier38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaliqiExpected goals in this matchApolonia Fier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.36

Maliqi

1.32

Apolonia Fier

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

1.47

creates per match

1.05

1.67

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Maliqi

1.47

Apolonia Fier

1.05

allows per match

Maliqi

1.67

Apolonia Fier

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maliqi+0.00on par

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maliqi ↓

Apolonia Fier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Maliqi or draw

62%

Maliqi or Apolonia Fier

74%

Draw or Apolonia Fier

64%

Winning margin

Maliqi wins by 2+

16%

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Maliqi 1+ goals

73%

Maliqi 2+ goals

38%

Maliqi 3+ goals

15%

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals

74%

Apolonia Fier 2+ goals

39%

Apolonia Fier 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Maliqi (draw refunded)

49%

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maliqi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maliqi attack 1.47 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Maliqi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maliqi scores more

36%

level

26%

Apolonia Fier scores more

38%

Apolonia Fier at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

S. RepajOwn goal

57'

D. Kame← A. Jaupllari

60'

R. Hebeja← E. Topi

70'

S. Tako← P. Ivani

79'

F. Demollari← J. Qeleshi

80'

R. Çelniku← A. Xaka

80'

A. Mezani← M. Shanaj

81'

R. Kaçanolli← S. Omeri

90+2'

S. Repaj

Maliqi

Apolonia

⚽🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Malësija

57'▲D. Kame←▼A. Jaupllari

70'▲S. Tako←▼P. Ivani

79'▲F. Demollari←▼J. Qeleshi

80'▲R. Çelniku←▼A. Xaka

Maliqi substitutes

KameTakoDemollariÇelnikuBaliKapllaniKameMaraKëndeziTrëndafili

Manager: J. Cannarsa

60'▲R. Hebeja←▼E. Topi

80'▲A. Mezani←▼M. Shanaj

81'▲R. Kaçanolli←▼S. Omeri

Apolonia Fier substitutes

HebejaMezaniKaçanolliÇiliHidriPapa