Mali W 9–0 Seychelles W: Result & Stats

Mali W

9 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Seychelles W

Unknown 89', 86', 83', 60', 55', 51', 32' (pen), 17', 9'

5/29/2024

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mali W94%

×Draw4%

Seychelles W2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mali WExpected goals in this matchSeychelles W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.80

0.70

Mali W

4.80

Seychelles W

0.70

Mali W creates 586% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.83

creates per match

0.56

0.83

allows per match

7.78

creates per match

Mali W

1.83

Seychelles W

0.56

allows per match

Mali W

0.83

Seychelles W

7.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mali W+0.00on par

Seychelles W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali W ↓

Seychelles W →

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–06%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–011%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

74%26%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Mali W or draw

98%

Mali W or Seychelles W

96%

Draw or Seychelles W

Winning margin

Mali W wins by 2+

84%

Seychelles W wins by 2+

Team goals

Mali W 1+ goals

99%

Mali W 2+ goals

94%

Mali W 3+ goals

82%

Seychelles W 1+ goals

50%

Seychelles W 2+ goals

16%

Seychelles W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mali W (draw refunded)

98%

Seychelles W (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mali W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Seychelles W away — creates 0.56, concedes 7.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mali W attack 1.83 + Seychelles W defence 7.78 → ÷2 → 4.80

Seychelles W attack 0.56 + Mali W defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 94%?"

Mali W scores more

94%

level

Seychelles W scores more

Mali W at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Mali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

32'

Penalty

51'

55'

60'

74'

83'

86'

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff