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Mali vs Zambia — Friendlies 2026

Mali
Mali
CANC
19:00
Zambia
Zambia
9/26/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mali71%
×Draw18%
Zambia11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali
2.25
Zambia
0.77

Mali creates 192% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

creates per match

Mali
2.33
Zambia
1.21

allows per match

Mali
0.33
Zambia
2.17

finishing

Mali+0.00on par
Zambia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali ↓

Zambia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mali or draw
89%
Mali or Zambia
82%
Draw or Zambia
29%

Winning margin

Mali wins by 2+
47%
Zambia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mali 1+ goals
89%
Mali 2+ goals
65%
Mali 3+ goals
39%
Zambia 1+ goals
54%
Zambia 2+ goals
18%
Zambia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mali (draw refunded)
86%
Zambia (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Zambia away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali attack 2.33 + Zambia defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

Zambia attack 1.21 + Mali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Mali scores more
71%
level
18%
Zambia scores more
11%

Mali at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mali host Zambia

September 26, 2022: Mali take on Zambia in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mali host Zambia at Stade 26 Mars.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.