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Mali vs Guinea-Bissau — Friendlies 2026

Mali
Mali
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau
1/6/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mali83%
×Draw13%
Guinea-Bissau4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali
2.45
Guinea-Bissau
0.38

Mali creates 545% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mali
2.33
Guinea-Bissau
0.43

allows per match

Mali
0.33
Guinea-Bissau
2.57

finishing

Mali+0.00on par
Guinea-Bissau+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali ↓

Guinea-Bissau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mali or draw
96%
Mali or Guinea-Bissau
87%
Draw or Guinea-Bissau
17%

Winning margin

Mali wins by 2+
60%
Guinea-Bissau wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Mali 1+ goals
91%
Mali 2+ goals
70%
Mali 3+ goals
44%
Guinea-Bissau 1+ goals
32%
Guinea-Bissau 2+ goals
6%
Guinea-Bissau 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mali (draw refunded)
95%
Guinea-Bissau (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Guinea-Bissau away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali attack 2.33 + Guinea-Bissau defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.45

Guinea-Bissau attack 0.43 + Mali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Mali scores more
83%
level
13%
Guinea-Bissau scores more
4%

Mali at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mali vs Guinea-Bissau

Mali beat Guinea-Bissau 6-2 in Friendlies on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade 26 Mars in Bamako.