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Mali vs Guinea — Friendlies 2026

Mali
Mali
FT
0 – 0
Guinea
Guinea
8/22/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mali68%
×Draw22%
Guinea10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali
1.80
Guinea
0.53

Mali creates 240% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mali
2.33
Guinea
0.73

allows per match

Mali
0.33
Guinea
1.27

finishing

Mali+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mali or draw
90%
Mali or Guinea
78%
Draw or Guinea
32%

Winning margin

Mali wins by 2+
41%
Guinea wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mali 1+ goals
83%
Mali 2+ goals
54%
Mali 3+ goals
27%
Guinea 1+ goals
41%
Guinea 2+ goals
10%
Guinea 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mali (draw refunded)
87%
Guinea (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali attack 2.33 + Guinea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.80

Guinea attack 0.73 + Mali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mali scores more
68%
level
22%
Guinea scores more
10%

Mali at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Mali 0–0 Guinea

Mali and Guinea drew 0-0 in Friendlies on August 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.