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Mali vs Equatorial Guinea — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Mali
Mali
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guineaadvanced
1/26/2022Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Round of 16Stade Omnisport de Limbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mali52%
×Draw26%
Equatorial Guinea22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali
1.49
Equatorial Guinea
0.86

Mali creates 73% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mali
1.60
Equatorial Guinea
1.13

allows per match

Mali
0.60
Equatorial Guinea
1.38

finishing

Mali+0.00on par
Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali ↓

Equatorial Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mali or draw
78%
Mali or Equatorial Guinea
74%
Draw or Equatorial Guinea
48%

Winning margin

Mali wins by 2+
26%
Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mali 1+ goals
77%
Mali 2+ goals
44%
Mali 3+ goals
19%
Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
58%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
21%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mali (draw refunded)
71%
Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Equatorial Guinea away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali attack 1.60 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.49

Equatorial Guinea attack 1.13 + Mali defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mali scores more
52%
level
26%
Equatorial Guinea scores more
22%

Mali at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Mali 0–0 Equatorial Guinea

Mali and Equatorial Guinea drew 0-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport de Limbe in Limbé.