Mali 2–1 Burkina Faso: Result & Stats

Mali

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Burkina Faso

1/30/2024

Africa Cup of Nations · Round of 16Stade Amadou Gon Coulibaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mali55%

×Draw27%

Burkina Faso18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaliExpected goals in this matchBurkina Faso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.69

Mali

1.42

Burkina Faso

0.69

Mali creates 106% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.60

creates per match

0.77

0.60

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Mali

1.60

Burkina Faso

0.77

allows per match

Mali

0.60

Burkina Faso

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mali+0.00on par

Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali ↓

Burkina Faso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mali or draw

82%

Mali or Burkina Faso

73%

Draw or Burkina Faso

45%

Winning margin

Mali wins by 2+

27%

Burkina Faso wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mali 1+ goals

76%

Mali 2+ goals

41%

Mali 3+ goals

17%

Burkina Faso 1+ goals

50%

Burkina Faso 2+ goals

15%

Burkina Faso 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mali (draw refunded)

75%

Burkina Faso (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali attack 1.60 + Burkina Faso defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Burkina Faso attack 0.77 + Mali defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mali scores more

55%

level

27%

Burkina Faso scores more

18%

Mali at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff