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Mali Coura vs Derby Academie — Première Division 2019

Mali Coura
Mali Coura
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Derby Academie
Derby Academie
1/30/2026Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mali Coura27%
×Draw33%
Derby Academie40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mali Coura
0.77
Derby Academie
1.00

Derby Academie creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mali Coura
0.69
Derby Academie
0.69

allows per match

Mali Coura
1.31
Derby Academie
0.85

finishing

Mali Coura+0.00on par
Derby Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mali Coura ↓

Derby Academie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mali Coura or draw
60%
Mali Coura or Derby Academie
67%
Draw or Derby Academie
73%

Winning margin

Mali Coura wins by 2+
8%
Derby Academie wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mali Coura 1+ goals
54%
Mali Coura 2+ goals
18%
Mali Coura 3+ goals
4%
Derby Academie 1+ goals
63%
Derby Academie 2+ goals
26%
Derby Academie 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mali Coura (draw refunded)
41%
Derby Academie (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mali Coura at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Derby Academie away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mali Coura attack 0.69 + Derby Academie defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Derby Academie attack 0.69 + Mali Coura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mali Coura scores more
27%
level
33%
Derby Academie scores more
40%

Derby Academie at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Derby Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mali Coura vs Derby Academie

Mali Coura and Derby Academie drew 1-1 in Première Division on January 30, 2026.