Maldives 1–1 Bangladesh U23: Result & Stats

Maldives

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bangladesh U23

A. Fasir 14' (pen)

M. Islam 54' (pen)

6/7/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalNational Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maldives26%

×Draw41%

Bangladesh U2333%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaldivesExpected goals in this matchBangladesh U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.57

0.67

Maldives

0.57

Bangladesh U23

0.67

Bangladesh U23 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

0.80

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Maldives

0.80

Bangladesh U23

0.33

allows per match

Maldives

1.00

Bangladesh U23

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maldives+0.00on par

Bangladesh U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Under87
Over13

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maldives ↓

Bangladesh U23 →

0–029%

0–119%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–05%

2–13%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (29%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

71%29%1.5

35%65%2.5

13%87%3.5

4%96%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Maldives or draw

67%

Maldives or Bangladesh U23

59%

Draw or Bangladesh U23

74%

Winning margin

Maldives wins by 2+

Bangladesh U23 wins by 2+

Team goals

Maldives 1+ goals

43%

Maldives 2+ goals

11%

Maldives 3+ goals

Bangladesh U23 1+ goals

49%

Bangladesh U23 2+ goals

15%

Bangladesh U23 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Maldives (draw refunded)

45%

Bangladesh U23 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

10%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maldives at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Bangladesh U23 away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maldives attack 0.80 + Bangladesh U23 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57

Bangladesh U23 attack 0.33 + Maldives defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 33%?"

Maldives scores more

26%

level

41%

Bangladesh U23 scores more

33%

Bangladesh U23 at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Bangladesh U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. FasirPenalty

37'

47'

54'

M. IslamPenalty

89'

90+9'

Maldives

Bangladesh

⚽

⚽

Manager: Ali Suzain

Maldives substitutes

2Aiham4Sifaau5Nasir6Shiham7Ashfaq9Naiz10Mohamed13Abdulla16Rasheed17Hussain18Shafeeu22Faisal

Bangladesh U23 substitutes

3Chowdhury4Hossain5Rahman11Ali12Jummon13Asif16Hossain17Moin18Hossain19Nova20Al-Amin23Ali