Malaysia W 1–2 Hong Kong W: Result & Stats

Malaysia W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hong Kong W

S. S. Kaur 38'

M. M. Ho 78'

S. Fung 24'

5/31/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesChanglimithang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Malaysia W38%

×Draw28%

Hong Kong W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaysia WExpected goals in this matchHong Kong W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.11

Malaysia W

1.21

Hong Kong W

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

0.50

creates per match

1.55

0.67

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Malaysia W

0.50

Hong Kong W

1.55

allows per match

Malaysia W

0.67

Hong Kong W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaysia W+0.00on par

Hong Kong W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia W ↓

Hong Kong W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Malaysia W or draw

67%

Malaysia W or Hong Kong W

72%

Draw or Hong Kong W

62%

Winning margin

Malaysia W wins by 2+

16%

Hong Kong W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Malaysia W 1+ goals

70%

Malaysia W 2+ goals

34%

Malaysia W 3+ goals

12%

Hong Kong W 1+ goals

67%

Hong Kong W 2+ goals

30%

Hong Kong W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Malaysia W (draw refunded)

53%

Hong Kong W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Hong Kong W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia W attack 0.50 + Hong Kong W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hong Kong W attack 1.55 + Malaysia W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Malaysia W scores more

38%

level

28%

Hong Kong W scores more

33%

Malaysia W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malaysia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

24'

38'

78'

Malaysia

Hong

1

3

6

8

14

10

12

15

⚽

20

5

9

23

2

3

5

7

8

9

10

⚽

13

15

22

Malaysia W substitutes

16N.4Arissa11Zamzaihiri12Thivashini14Nurfarisya17Abidin18Rahman19Lamsin20Firdaus24Kanchenjeet25Azzlyeanieh26Addin

Manager: José Ricardo