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Malaysia vs Timor-Leste — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Malaysia
Malaysia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste
6/2/2016Asian Cup - QualificationAsian Cup - Qualification · Play-offs - 1st RoundTan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Malaysia69%
×Draw18%
Timor-Leste13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaysia
2.30
Timor-Leste
0.86

Malaysia creates 167% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Malaysia
2.44
Timor-Leste
0.50

allows per match

Malaysia
1.22
Timor-Leste
2.17

finishing

Malaysia+0.00on par
Timor-Leste+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia ↓

Timor-Leste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Malaysia or draw
87%
Malaysia or Timor-Leste
82%
Draw or Timor-Leste
31%

Winning margin

Malaysia wins by 2+
46%
Timor-Leste wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Malaysia 1+ goals
90%
Malaysia 2+ goals
67%
Malaysia 3+ goals
40%
Timor-Leste 1+ goals
58%
Timor-Leste 2+ goals
21%
Timor-Leste 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Malaysia (draw refunded)
85%
Timor-Leste (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Timor-Leste away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia attack 2.44 + Timor-Leste defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.30

Timor-Leste attack 0.50 + Malaysia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Malaysia scores more
69%
level
18%
Timor-Leste scores more
13%

Malaysia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Malaysia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaysia vs Timor-Leste

Malaysia beat Timor-Leste 3-0 in Asian Cup - Qualification on June 2, 2016.

The match was played at Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium in Johor Bahru.