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Malaysia vs Singapore — AFF Championship 2018

Malaysia
Malaysia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Singapore
Singapore
1/3/2023AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 5Bukit Jalil National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Malaysia61%
×Draw22%
Singapore18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaysia
1.96
Singapore
0.96

Malaysia creates 104% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Malaysia
2.36
Singapore
1.00

allows per match

Malaysia
0.91
Singapore
1.56

finishing

Malaysia+0.00on par
Singapore+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia ↓

Singapore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Malaysia or draw
82%
Malaysia or Singapore
78%
Draw or Singapore
39%

Winning margin

Malaysia wins by 2+
36%
Singapore wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malaysia 1+ goals
86%
Malaysia 2+ goals
58%
Malaysia 3+ goals
31%
Singapore 1+ goals
62%
Singapore 2+ goals
25%
Singapore 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malaysia (draw refunded)
77%
Singapore (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Singapore away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia attack 2.36 + Singapore defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.96

Singapore attack 1.00 + Malaysia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Malaysia scores more
61%
level
22%
Singapore scores more
18%

Malaysia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Malaysia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF Championship: Malaysia 4–1 Singapore

Malaysia beat Singapore 4-1 in AFF Championship on January 3, 2023.

The match was played at Bukit Jalil National Stadium in Kuala Lumpur.