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Malaysia vs Jordan — Friendlies 2026

Malaysia
Malaysia
FT
0 – 1
Jordan
Jordan
8/30/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stadium Nasional Bukit Jalil (Kuala Lumpur)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Malaysia69%
×Draw20%
Jordan12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaysia
2.04
Jordan
0.69

Malaysia creates 196% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Malaysia
2.33
Jordan
0.88

allows per match

Malaysia
0.50
Jordan
1.76

finishing

Malaysia+0.00on par
Jordan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia ↓

Jordan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Malaysia or draw
88%
Malaysia or Jordan
80%
Draw or Jordan
31%

Winning margin

Malaysia wins by 2+
44%
Jordan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Malaysia 1+ goals
87%
Malaysia 2+ goals
60%
Malaysia 3+ goals
33%
Jordan 1+ goals
50%
Jordan 2+ goals
15%
Jordan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Malaysia (draw refunded)
86%
Jordan (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.50 · 24 matches

Jordan away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia attack 2.33 + Jordan defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.04

Jordan attack 0.88 + Malaysia defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Malaysia scores more
69%
level
20%
Jordan scores more
12%

Malaysia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Malaysia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaysia vs Jordan

Jordan beat Malaysia 1-0 in Friendlies on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Nasional Bukit Jalil (Kuala Lumpur).