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Malaysia vs Bahrain — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Malaysia
Malaysia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bahrain
Bahrain
6/11/2022Asian Cup - QualificationAsian Cup - Qualification · 3rd Round - 2Stadium Nasional Bukit Jalil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malaysia41%
×Draw23%
Bahrain36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaysia
1.72
Bahrain
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Malaysia
2.44
Bahrain
2.00

allows per match

Malaysia
1.22
Bahrain
1.00

finishing

Malaysia+0.00on par
Bahrain+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia ↓

Bahrain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Malaysia or draw
64%
Malaysia or Bahrain
77%
Draw or Bahrain
59%

Winning margin

Malaysia wins by 2+
21%
Bahrain wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Malaysia 1+ goals
82%
Malaysia 2+ goals
51%
Malaysia 3+ goals
25%
Bahrain 1+ goals
80%
Bahrain 2+ goals
48%
Bahrain 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Malaysia (draw refunded)
53%
Bahrain (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Bahrain away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia attack 2.44 + Bahrain defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Bahrain attack 2.00 + Malaysia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaysia scores more
41%
level
23%
Bahrain scores more
36%

Malaysia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malaysia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup - Qualification: Malaysia 1–2 Bahrain

Bahrain beat Malaysia 2-1 in Asian Cup - Qualification on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadium Nasional Bukit Jalil in Kuala Lumpur.