Malaysia U19 1–1 Thailand U19: Result & Stats

Malaysia U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Thailand U19

P. Gunalan 47' (pen)

C. Ryan 4'

7/25/2024

AFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 3Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Malaysia U1949%

×Draw24%

Thailand U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaysia U19Expected goals in this matchThailand U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.17

Malaysia U19

1.67

Thailand U19

1.17

Malaysia U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.83

creates per match

2.00

0.33

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Malaysia U19

2.83

Thailand U19

2.00

allows per match

Malaysia U19

0.33

Thailand U19

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaysia U19+0.00on par

Thailand U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia U19 ↓

Thailand U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Malaysia U19 or draw

73%

Malaysia U19 or Thailand U19

76%

Draw or Thailand U19

51%

Winning margin

Malaysia U19 wins by 2+

26%

Thailand U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Malaysia U19 1+ goals

81%

Malaysia U19 2+ goals

50%

Malaysia U19 3+ goals

23%

Thailand U19 1+ goals

69%

Thailand U19 2+ goals

33%

Thailand U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Malaysia U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Thailand U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia U19 at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Thailand U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia U19 attack 2.83 + Thailand U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Thailand U19 attack 2.00 + Malaysia U19 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Malaysia U19 scores more

49%

level

24%

Thailand U19 scores more

27%

Malaysia U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Malaysia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

C. Ryan

47'

P. GunalanPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff