Malaysia U19 2–0 Laos U19: Result & Stats

Malaysia U19

FT

2 – 0

Laos U19

7/15/2022

AFF U19 Championship · FinalStadion Patriot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malaysia U1964%

×Draw22%

Laos U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaysia U19Expected goals in this matchLaos U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.67

Malaysia U19

1.79

Laos U19

0.67

Malaysia U19 creates 167% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.83

creates per match

1.00

0.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Malaysia U19

2.83

Laos U19

1.00

allows per match

Malaysia U19

0.33

Laos U19

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaysia U19+0.00on par

Laos U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia U19 ↓

Laos U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Malaysia U19 or draw

87%

Malaysia U19 or Laos U19

78%

Draw or Laos U19

36%

Winning margin

Malaysia U19 wins by 2+

38%

Laos U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Malaysia U19 1+ goals

83%

Malaysia U19 2+ goals

53%

Malaysia U19 3+ goals

26%

Laos U19 1+ goals

49%

Laos U19 2+ goals

15%

Laos U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Malaysia U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Laos U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia U19 at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Laos U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia U19 attack 2.83 + Laos U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

Laos U19 attack 1.00 + Malaysia U19 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Malaysia U19 scores more

64%

level

22%

Laos U19 scores more

13%

Malaysia U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Malaysia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff