Malaysia U17 0–3 Thailand U17: Result & Stats

Malaysia U17

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Thailand U17

6/18/2023

AFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 2BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malaysia U1762%

×Draw18%

Thailand U1720%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaysia U17Expected goals in this matchThailand U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.50

Malaysia U17

2.70

Thailand U17

1.50

Malaysia U17 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

3.60

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Malaysia U17

3.60

Thailand U17

2.00

allows per match

Malaysia U17

1.00

Thailand U17

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaysia U17+0.00on par

Thailand U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia U17 ↓

Thailand U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Malaysia U17 or draw

80%

Malaysia U17 or Thailand U17

82%

Draw or Thailand U17

38%

Winning margin

Malaysia U17 wins by 2+

42%

Thailand U17 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Malaysia U17 1+ goals

93%

Malaysia U17 2+ goals

75%

Malaysia U17 3+ goals

50%

Thailand U17 1+ goals

78%

Thailand U17 2+ goals

44%

Thailand U17 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Malaysia U17 (draw refunded)

76%

Thailand U17 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia U17 at home — creates 3.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Thailand U17 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia U17 attack 3.60 + Thailand U17 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.70

Thailand U17 attack 2.00 + Malaysia U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Malaysia U17 scores more

62%

level

18%

Thailand U17 scores more

20%

Malaysia U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Malaysia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff