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Malaysia U17 vs N. Mariana Islands U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2026

Malaysia U17
Malaysia U17
FT
13 – 0
HT: 7 – 0
N. Mariana Islands U17
N. Mariana Islands U17
11/22/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Malaysia U17100%
×Draw0%
N. Mariana Islands U170%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaysia U17
7.83
N. Mariana Islands U17
0.17

Malaysia U17 creates 4506% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Malaysia U17
5.33
N. Mariana Islands U17
0.00

allows per match

Malaysia U17
0.33
N. Mariana Islands U17
10.33

finishing

Malaysia U17+0.00on par
N. Mariana Islands U17+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%No
  • No84
  • Yes16

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaysia U17 ↓

N. Mariana Islands U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–10%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–11%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–016%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (16%) · grid covers 33% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
87%13%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Malaysia U17 or draw
100%
Malaysia U17 or N. Mariana Islands U17
100%
Draw or N. Mariana Islands U17
0%

Winning margin

Malaysia U17 wins by 2+
98%
N. Mariana Islands U17 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Malaysia U17 1+ goals
100%
Malaysia U17 2+ goals
99%
Malaysia U17 3+ goals
95%
N. Mariana Islands U17 1+ goals
16%
N. Mariana Islands U17 2+ goals
1%
N. Mariana Islands U17 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Malaysia U17 (draw refunded)
100%
N. Mariana Islands U17 (draw refunded)
0%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaysia U17 at home — creates 5.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

N. Mariana Islands U17 away — creates 0.00, concedes 10.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaysia U17 attack 5.33 + N. Mariana Islands U17 defence 10.33 → ÷2 → 7.83

N. Mariana Islands U17 attack 0.00 + Malaysia U17 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 100%?"

Malaysia U17 scores more
100%
level
0%
N. Mariana Islands U17 scores more
0%

Malaysia U17 at 100% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 100% does not mean "Malaysia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC U17 Asian Cup: Malaysia U17 13–0 N. Mariana Islands U17

Malaysia U17 beat N. Mariana Islands U17 13-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on November 22, 2025.