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Malawi W vs Seychelles W — Friendlies Women 2026

Malawi W
Malawi W
FT
17 – 0
HT: 8 – 0
Seychelles W
Seychelles W
G. Chikondi 87', 81', 52'
L. Chinyamula 82', 54'
T. Chawinga 78', 76', 60'
C. Mathyola 52'
V. Chikupira 43', 33', 31'
S. Mlimbika 41'
S. Thom 24', 18'
R. Kabzere 15'
I. Khumalo 8'
9/25/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malawi W99%
×Draw1%
Seychelles W0%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malawi W
7.99
Seychelles W
0.38

Malawi W creates 2003% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Malawi W
8.20
Seychelles W
0.56

allows per match

Malawi W
0.20
Seychelles W
7.78

finishing

Malawi W+0.00on par
Seychelles W+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malawi W ↓

Seychelles W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–10%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–11%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 32% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
90%10%4.5
74%26%

Double chance

Malawi W or draw
100%
Malawi W or Seychelles W
99%
Draw or Seychelles W
1%

Winning margin

Malawi W wins by 2+
97%
Seychelles W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Malawi W 1+ goals
100%
Malawi W 2+ goals
99%
Malawi W 3+ goals
96%
Seychelles W 1+ goals
32%
Seychelles W 2+ goals
6%
Seychelles W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Malawi W (draw refunded)
100%
Seychelles W (draw refunded)
0%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malawi W at home — creates 8.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Seychelles W away — creates 0.56, concedes 7.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malawi W attack 8.20 + Seychelles W defence 7.78 → ÷2 → 7.99

Seychelles W attack 0.56 + Malawi W defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 99%?"

Malawi W scores more
99%
level
1%
Seychelles W scores more
0%

Malawi W at 99% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 99% does not mean "Malawi W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
I. Khumalo
15'
R. Kabzere
18'
S. Thom
24'
S. Thom
31'
V. Chikupira
33'
V. Chikupira
41'
S. Mlimbika
43'
V. Chikupira
52'
C. Mathyola
52'
G. Chikondi
54'
L. Chinyamula
60'
T. Chawinga
76'
T. Chawinga
78'
T. Chawinga
81'
G. Chikondi
82'
L. Chinyamula
87'
G. Chikondi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Malawi W 17–0 Seychelles W

Malawi W beat Seychelles W 17-0 in Friendlies Women on September 25, 2023.

Goals: I. Khumalo (8'), R. Kabzere (15'), S. Thom (18', 24'), V. Chikupira (31', 33', 43'), S. Mlimbika (41'), C. Mathyola (52'), G. Chikondi (52', 81', 87'), L. Chinyamula (54', 82'), T. Chawinga (60', 76', 78').

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.