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Malawi vs Kenya — Friendlies 2026

Malawi
Malawi
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Kenya
Kenya
3/23/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Bingu National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Malawi24%
×Draw27%
Kenya50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malawi
0.92
Kenya
1.46

Kenya creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Malawi
0.33
Kenya
1.25

allows per match

Malawi
1.67
Kenya
1.50

finishing

Malawi+0.00on par
Kenya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malawi ↓

Kenya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Malawi or draw
50%
Malawi or Kenya
73%
Draw or Kenya
76%

Winning margin

Malawi wins by 2+
8%
Kenya wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Malawi 1+ goals
60%
Malawi 2+ goals
23%
Malawi 3+ goals
7%
Kenya 1+ goals
77%
Kenya 2+ goals
43%
Kenya 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Malawi (draw refunded)
32%
Kenya (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malawi at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Kenya away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malawi attack 0.33 + Kenya defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Kenya attack 1.25 + Malawi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Malawi scores more
24%
level
27%
Kenya scores more
50%

Kenya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kenya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malawi vs Kenya

Kenya beat Malawi 4-0 in Friendlies on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Bingu National Stadium in Lilongwe.