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Malavan vs ZOB Ahan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
8/9/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 1Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Malavan39%
×Draw31%
ZOB Ahan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.08
ZOB Ahan
0.93

Malavan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 116 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.09
ZOB Ahan
0.91

allows per match

Malavan
0.95
ZOB Ahan
1.07

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
69%
Malavan or ZOB Ahan
69%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
61%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
16%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
66%
Malavan 2+ goals
29%
Malavan 3+ goals
10%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
61%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
24%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
56%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.09 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Malavan defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Malavan scores more
39%
level
31%
ZOB Ahan scores more
31%

Malavan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Malavan 1–2 ZOB Ahan

ZOB Ahan beat Malavan 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 9, 2023.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Bandar-e-Anzalī.