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Malavan vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
0 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
5/14/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Malavan45%
×Draw32%
Shahin Bushehr22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.08
Shahin Bushehr
0.66

Malavan creates 64% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 48 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.21
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Malavan
0.62
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
78%
Malavan or Shahin Bushehr
68%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
55%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
19%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
66%
Malavan 2+ goals
29%
Malavan 3+ goals
10%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
48%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
14%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
67%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.62 · 66 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.21 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Malavan defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Malavan scores more
45%
level
32%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
22%

Malavan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Malavan 0–0 Shahin Bushehr

Malavan and Shahin Bushehr drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on May 14, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Bandar-e-Anzalī.