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Malavan vs Sepahan FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
4/21/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 24Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Malavan30%
×Draw29%
Sepahan FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
0.96
Sepahan FC
1.17

Sepahan FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 115 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.09
Sepahan FC
1.38

allows per match

Malavan
0.95
Sepahan FC
0.82

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Sepahan FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
59%
Malavan or Sepahan FC
71%
Draw or Sepahan FC
70%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
11%
Sepahan FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
62%
Malavan 2+ goals
25%
Malavan 3+ goals
7%
Sepahan FC 1+ goals
69%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
33%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
42%
Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.82 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.09 + Sepahan FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sepahan FC attack 1.38 + Malavan defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malavan scores more
30%
level
29%
Sepahan FC scores more
41%

Sepahan FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malavan vs Sepahan FC

Sepahan FC beat Malavan 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Bandar-e-Anzalī.