Malavan 3–2 Niroye Zamini: Result & Stats

Malavan

FT

3 – 2

Niroye Zamini

H. Habibinezhad 78', 53'

M. Hossein 38' (OG)

M. Farzaneh 90'

A. Khodadadi 90'

11/16/2019

Azadegan League · Round 13Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Malavan47%

×Draw31%

Niroye Zamini23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalavanExpected goals in this matchNiroye Zamini

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.73

Malavan

1.18

Niroye Zamini

0.73

Malavan creates 62% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 49 away

1.27

creates per match

0.78

0.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Malavan

1.27

Niroye Zamini

0.78

allows per match

Malavan

0.67

Niroye Zamini

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Niroye Zamini →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Malavan or draw

77%

Malavan or Niroye Zamini

69%

Draw or Niroye Zamini

53%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+

20%

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals

69%

Malavan 2+ goals

33%

Malavan 3+ goals

12%

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

52%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

17%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)

67%

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.27 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Malavan defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Malavan scores more

47%

level

31%

Niroye Zamini scores more

23%

Malavan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

M. HosseinOwn goal

53'

H. Habibinezhad

78'

H. Habibinezhad

85'

M. Kheiri

87'

A. Tafazoli

90'

M. Farzaneh

90'

A. Khodadadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff