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Malavan vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Azadegan League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
1 – 1
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
2/25/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Takhti Stadium (Ebtedaye khiabane) (Bandar-e-Anzalī)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Malavan46%
×Draw30%
Naft Masjed Soleyman24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.21
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.79

Malavan creates 53% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 36 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.25
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.92

allows per match

Malavan
0.65
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.17

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
76%
Malavan or Naft Masjed Soleyman
70%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
54%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
20%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
70%
Malavan 2+ goals
34%
Malavan 3+ goals
12%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
55%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
19%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
66%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.65 · 52 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.25 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.92 + Malavan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Malavan scores more
46%
level
30%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
24%

Malavan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malavan 1 – 1 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Malavan and Naft Masjed Soleyman drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 25, 2018.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium (Ebtedaye khiabane) (Bandar-e-Anzalī).