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Malavan vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
2 – 3
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Unknown 90', 71'
Unknown 64', 56'
A. Gholamrezapour 18'
9/15/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Malavan48%
×Draw30%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.22
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.72

Malavan creates 69% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.27
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Malavan
0.67
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.17

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
78%
Malavan or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
70%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
52%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
22%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
70%
Malavan 2+ goals
34%
Malavan 3+ goals
12%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
51%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
16%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
69%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.27 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Malavan defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Malavan scores more
48%
level
30%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
22%

Malavan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. Gholamrezapour
56'
64'
71'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Malavan 2–3 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Malavan 3-2 in Azadegan League on September 15, 2019.

Goals: A. Gholamrezapour (18'), ? (56', 64', 71', 90').

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Bandar-e-Anzalī.