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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Malavan
Malavan
5/5/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 28Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh44%
×Draw31%
Malavan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15
Malavan
0.79

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 46% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 66 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Malavan
0.76

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.83
Malavan
1.09

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
75%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Malavan
69%
Draw or Malavan
56%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
19%
Malavan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
68%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
32%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
11%
Malavan 1+ goals
55%
Malavan 2+ goals
19%
Malavan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
64%
Malavan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 83 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Malavan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Malavan attack 0.76 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
44%
level
31%
Malavan scores more
25%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Malavan

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Malavan 2-1 in Azadegan League on May 5, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium in Saveh.