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Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
1 – 0
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
S. Fadakar 69'
5/26/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Malavan39%
×Draw32%
Fajr Sepasi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.04
Fajr Sepasi
0.85

Malavan creates 22% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 83 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.27
Fajr Sepasi
1.04

allows per match

Malavan
0.67
Fajr Sepasi
0.82

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
71%
Malavan or Fajr Sepasi
68%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
61%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
15%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
65%
Malavan 2+ goals
28%
Malavan 3+ goals
9%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
57%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
21%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
57%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.67 · 51 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.82 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.27 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.04 + Malavan defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Malavan scores more
39%
level
32%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
29%

Malavan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

69'
S. Fadakar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Malavan 1–0 Fajr Sepasi

Malavan beat Fajr Sepasi 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 26, 2021.

Goals: S. Fadakar (69').

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Bandar-e-Anzalī.